Audrey Young: Nats' 'father of the House' could be turfed out
OPINION: National's list has fallen victim to its unexpected success in the electorates. The final election result will be announced on the final day of the Politics Briefing, with two weeks left until the final result is announced. National's 'father of the House' could be ousted due to its unexpected success in the electorates. Currently, National has 50 seats, but only five are from the list. The next five remaining on the list are Nancy Lu, Agnes Loheni, Emma Chatterton, James Christmas and Dale Stephens. If National keeps its party vote entitlement to 50 seats but loses three marginal electorates, it could only have three people from the current list. Other scenarios include a potential senior MP and father-of-the-House Gerry Brownlee, who would find it difficult to return.
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发表 : 2年前 经过 Audrey Young 在 Politics
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Welcome to the Politics Briefing with two long weeks to go until special votes are known and the final election result is declared. There are some very nervous National candidates both in electorates and on the list. And there is a good reason for that. It is extremely finely balanced and could get very tricky.
In short, National’s list has fallen victim to its unexpected success in the electorates.
At present, National has 50 seats. Because it won many more electorate seats than expected, a massive 45 of them are electorate seats and only five are from the list - Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Melissa Lee, Gerry Brownlee and Andrew Bayly. The next five waiting on the list are (in this order): Nancy Lu, Agnes Loheni, Emma Chatterton, James Christmas and Dale Stephens.
At the same time, National has some very close electorate contests in which specials could tip them either way, all held by candidates with such low list placings that it’s winning the seat or nothing: National holds Te Atatū by 30, Nelson by 54, Banks Peninsula by 83 and, incredibly, Labour holds Mt Albert by only 106 votes after Labour list MP Helen White just pulled ahead of National list MP Melissa Lee.
So the first big question is how many seats will National lose overall on the specials (the party vote) - National traditionally does not pick up seats on specials - and then how many will be made up of electorates and how many by the list.
If the party ends up being entitled to only 47 seats instead of 50 and it loses its three most marginal seats, the current list as elected from last Saturday would stay as is - and after Andrew Bayly wins the Port Waikato byelection in late November due to the death of the Act candidate, Nancy Lu would replace him on the National list.
But there are many other scenarios, including plausible ones in which senior MP and father of the House Gerry Brownlee would find it hard to get back. If National is entitled to, say, 48 seats but National holds onto its three marginal seats, with 45 electorates, it could have only three people from the list: Willis, Goldsmith and Lee. Brownlee would not get back in after Bayly won the Port Waikato byelection because Bayly would not have been on the list to begin with.
Even if Lee won Mt Albert, it would make no difference to Brownlee. It would just reduce the number of list MPs to two: Willis and Goldsmith.
Under another, more improbable scenario, if National keeps its party vote entitlement to 50 seats, but loses the three marginal electorates, taking it from 45 to 42 electorates, Lu, Loheni and Chatteron would immediately be elected as list MPs to get to eight list MPs, and after Bayly won the Port Waikato byelection, James Christmas would replace him as a list candidate.
The failure to get lawyer James Christmas elected with certainty on the party list will be a blow to Luxon because it was widely known and confirmed by Luxon during the campaign that he was earmarked to go straight into Cabinet with Treaty Negotiations and Attorney-General.
Luxon went to visit his former school in his Botany electorate yesterday and had a less testy standup than he had with the Press Gallery on Monday and Tuesday. His declamation that things would be done differently and he would not be giving a blow-by-blow account of coalition talks was met defensively by some. Shayne Currie takes a close look at the Tuesday standup in his Media Insider column at the bottom of my list.
Meanwhile, Chris Hipkins has made the best decision to remain as leader for now and former Labour leader Andrew Little has opted to retire. Importantly, Grant Robertson has pledged to stick around to help get the caucus into shape.
Among the stories below, I’ve again included the Herald’s interactive graphic on the election result (fourth down). If you opt for a grid view and order the seats according to tightness, you’ll get the most marginal seats in the country at the top - Te Atatū, Nelson and Banks Peninsula - working down to the safest seats - East Coast Bays, Selwyn and Whangaparāoa.
“Thoughts and prayers” - Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson on what advice she would give Christopher Luxon and David Seymour on dealing with Winston Peters in a three-way government.
“Get out of my way” - The only comment Winston Peters made to media when he arrived in Wellington on Wednesday.
Te Pāti Māori’s Tākuta Ferris beat Rino Tirikatene in the southern Māori seat of Te Tai Tonga. Who was the last Māori Party candidate to win the seat and when? Answer below.
To Labour MP Helen White, who has taken Mt Albert from the biggest majority in the country - 21,246 under Jacinda Ardern in 2020 - to 106 last weekend and rejected the notion she hadn’t done a good job: “I didn’t do badly. I did really, really well,” she told reporters this week.
Goes to one of Labour’s best, Andrew Little, who has decided to retire from politics rather than go into Opposition. He has never been one to muck around.
Victory tour: Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has visited his Botany electorate in Auckland as coalition talks to form a government continue in Wellington.
Anatomy of Labour’s collapse: Jacinda Ardern pledged to look after first-time Labour voters after the party’s landslide 2020 win. What happened?
Opinion: The outline of a National-Act coalition is coming into focus, but special votes are unlikely to improve the numbers, writes Matthew Hooton.
One-stop election shop: Find everything you need to know about the overall vote and local results on the Herald’s interactive election map.
Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke: New Zealand’s youngest MP is following in the footsteps of her great, great, great, great grandfather.
Green Party: A likely record Green Party caucus is ramping up for an energetic term in Opposition.
Winston Peters: New Zealand First’s leader made a reticent return to Wellington ahead of negotiation talks with National and Act.
Chris Hipkins: The outgoing PM says he will battle on as Labour leader as the party transitions into Opposition after Saturday night’s devastating defeat to National.
Cuts: National, Act and NZ First vowed to cut multiple Labour plans and policies if they came to power. Here’s what’s facing the axe.
Māori health: Dame Tariana Turia believes more can be accomplished for Māori health under a National-led government.
Israel-Hamas war: Te Pāti Māori has called on the New Zealand Government to expel the Israeli ambassador if Israel does not immediately implement a ceasefire in its war with Hamas in Gaza.
Spy warning: New Zealand tech businesses need to be aware they may be targets, victims or accidental abettors of hostile intelligence gathering, Five Eyes bosses say.
From one PM to another: Former Prime Minister Sir Bill English has some advice for Prime Minister-designate Christopher Luxon: “It’s not a business, okay.”
Media Insider: A bizarre moment of live television on election night highlighted a simmering tension between Newshub and the National Party, writes Shayne Currie.
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.